THIS MODERN WORLD

I’ve gotta hand it to you Mr. President. You may be unable to defeat an insurgency, but you can really beat a metaphor to death :

This new threat required us to think and act differently. And as the 9/11 Commission pointed out, to prevent this from happening again, we need to connect the dots before the enemy attacks, not after.
. . .
You know, there’s an interesting debate in Washington, and you’re part of it, that says, well, they didn’t connect the
dots prior to September the 11th — “they” being not only my administration, but previous administrations. And I understand that debate. I’m not being critical of you bringing this issue up and discussing it, but there was a — you might remember, if you take a step back, people were pretty adamant about hauling people up to testify, and wondering how come the dots weren’t connected.

Well, the Patriot Act helps us connect the dots. And now the United States Senate is going to let this bill expire. Not the Senate — a minority of senators. And I want senators from New York or Los Angeles or Las Vegas to go home and explain why these cities are safer. It is inexcusable to say, on the one hand, connect the dots, and not give us a chance to do so. We’ve connected the dots, or trying to connect the dots with the NSA program. And, again, I understand the press and members of the United States Congress saying, are you sure you’re safeguarding civil liberties. That’s a legitimate question, and an important question. And today I hope I’ll help answer that. But we’re connecting dots as best as we possibly can.

Now Mr. President, I’ve got a homework assignment for you.Sometime over the holidays, you need to read the two big 9/11 reports, the Congressional Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Failures and the one published by the 9/11 Commission (which can be found at Barnes & Noble). By “read”, I don’t mean having an aide verbally paraphrase the portions of the executive summary that agree with your worldview, but actually read the whole thing. If there are any big words, try sounding them out slowly and look up the definitions if you aren’t sure what they mean. When you’re done, come back and read the rest of this post.

[ Pause here to read the 9/11 reports and reflect on their contents. ]

Wow, that was a tough one, huh? What did you think? Do you think there are things that our government could have done better? Yeah, that’s right, we should “connect the dots”. Do you know what that phrase means? Look at the picture below :

Now if the picture above was the intelligence failures described in the 9/11 reports, what do you think those dots would represent? No, they don’t represent “evildoers”, they represent bits of intelligence. Number one, for example, might represent the “Phoenix Memo” that described a possible terrorist plot by terrorists to hijack a plane and crash it into CIA headquarters. Number two, could be the reports of suspicious men in flight training schools who wanted to learn to fly 747’s but didn’t want to know how to land. The third could be the FAA directive to commercial airliners that terrorists may try to board planes.The fourth could be the “chatter” that resulted in the PDB “Bin Laden determined to strike in US”. And so on….

So how do we put these disparate pieces of information together? Yeah, you connect the dots, but how does that work? In some places it means making sure any Arabic communications have been translated. In others it means ensuring that information is shared between various government agencies. And in others, it means cutting through bureaucratic red tape. And once those lines are drawn from one to two to three, then it means having someone step back with a view of the big picture and say “Hey, that’s George Washington”.

Which leads me to why I think you need a refresher course in dot-connecting. What happens when you order warrantless wiretaps, confiscate library records, and spy on mosques and peace protests? It doesn’t make the picture easier to see, it just adds a lot more dots. We don’t need to be making the whole thing more complicated, we need to make it easier to draw lines. That’s why the NSA wiretaps and the PATRIOT ACT are bad ideas. Yes, some portions of the PATRIOT ACT make it easier to draw the lines, but they don’t do much good when they’re lumped together with stuff that just makes the dot-connecting more confusing.

Did you like the movie Die Hard? I thought it totally kicked ass, but at the end of the day, it was just a movie. In real life, the bad guys don’t go wandering around giving monologues about their plans and motives. But that’s what I’m afraid is motivating your current obsession with collecting intelligence. Stop me if I’m wrong here, but it seems like you’re endlessly looking for a “smoking gun” like a wiretapped phone call saying “Tomorrow morning, me and my eighteen friends are gonna hijack planes and crash them into buildings. Don’t tell anybody”. But all this waiting around for something that isn’t likely to happen is fraught with two problems. Number one, you’re collecting so many phone calls and emails that there aren’t enough people around to translate them quickly enough. Number two, your search for obvious intelligence may lead to ignoring mountains of vague intelligence that could lead to the same conclusion.

Which all leads me back to the 9/11 reports that I had you read earlier. Remember the conclusions they reached? It wasn’t that they didn’t have enough information to foil the hijackers, but that they didn’t, say it with me, Connect. The. Dots. So what is the lesson here? That the problems leading up to 9/11 weren’t with intelligence collection but with analysis of that evidence. Got it?

I’m signing off for a few days. So should you.

PS: If Showtime really picks up Arrested Development (via Kos) — well, I think that qualifies as a genuine Festivus miracle.

It’s been quite a week in the abuse-of-authority department. The NSA story has gotten most of the attention, of course, but let’s not overlook the other contenders.

We’ve learned that the Pentagon has been spying on Quakers and gay student groups. We’ve learned that federal agents may visit you if you read the wrong book. And today, we learn that New York City police have been covertly stirring up trouble at protest rallies.

Undercover New York City police officers have conducted covert surveillance in the last 16 months of people protesting the Iraq war, bicycle riders taking part in mass rallies and even mourners at a street vigil for a cyclist killed in an accident, a series of videotapes show.

In glimpses and in glaring detail, the videotape images reveal the robust presence of disguised officers or others working with them at seven public gatherings since August 2004.

The officers hoist protest signs. They hold flowers with mourners. They ride in bicycle events. At the vigil for the cyclist, an officer in biking gear wore a button that said, “I am a shameless agitator.” She also carried a camera and videotaped the roughly 15 people present.

Beyond collecting information, some of the undercover officers or their associates are seen on the tape having influence on events. At a demonstration last year during the Republican National Convention, the sham arrest of a man secretly working with the police led to a bruising confrontation between officers in riot gear and bystanders.

Until Sept. 11, the secret monitoring of events where people expressed their opinions was among the most tightly limited of police powers.

Berube has a good post on the supposed “libertarians” who support ever-increasing government intrusiveness at the expense of, you know, liberty. But there’s more to the problem than bloggers who continually harrumph that those of us angered by the mendacity of the Bush administration are “on the other side.” There’s more to the problem than bloggers who genuinely believe that those of us who fear for the very principles of liberty and freedom upon which this nation was founded actually want al Qaeda to win.

The real problem is that there are — and always have been — people in government and law enforcement, people with actual power, who believe this crap. Who can’t tell the difference between a Quaker’s friends meeting and an al Qaeda cell. Who believe — or conveniently pretend to believe — that gay student groups are a threat to national security. Who see a group of protesters and think to themselves, “you’re either with us or against us,” and consider it their duty to undermine the First Amendment by any means necessary.

The right wing bloggers are just on the sidelines, cheering these people on — because they figure their status as Right Thinking Citizens protects them from similar harassment and intimidation. In their fantasies, the big strong police officer will see the flag pin on their lapel and give them a knowing wink and move on down the line to bash some longhaired terrorist loving hippie freak.

History, of course, would tend to suggest that increasing authoritarianism often doesn’t work out that well, even for Right Thinking Citizens. But no one ever seems to remember that particular lesson until it’s far too late.

…meanwhile, the Pajamatarians are busy discussing traffic cameras in the U.K. I guess that one’s safely abstract enough to denounce. Just wait until it starts happening here, they’ll be stumbling over themselves to explain why it’s not a big deal at all.

I’m going just a little crazy trying to wrap up deadlines and get everything done before that holiday we liberals hate rolls around. So I expect blogging to be sort of sporadic and then fizzle out altogether over the next few days.

But this is too damn good not to post. And I know it’s a trite catchphrase used too often in lieu of actual thought, but in this case it’s almost imperative: read the whole thing.

9/11 changed everything. Suddenly the he-men of WalMart and the NRA leaped into Big Brother’s arms and shrieked “save me, save me! Do what ever you have to do, they’re trying to kill us all!” They now look to Daddy Government not to discipline the children, but to check under the bed for them every night, reassure them that the boogeyman won’t hurt them and then read them a nice bedtime story about spreading freedom and democracy. It turns out that underneath all this swaggering bravado, the Republicans aren’t the Daddy party — they’re the baby party.

(Incidentally, the author of that post, Digby, is doing a little fundraising…)

* * *

And as if to prove the point, Bill O’Reilly’s viewers weigh in …

With the end of the year approaching, it seems like a good time to thank my editor and publicist at my new publisher, Tarcher. After more than a decade with St. Martin’s, my expectations for publishers were ground into the dirt. My editor at SMP was a loyal friend, but the machinery there conspired against us at every turn. When the Great Big Book came out a few years ago, a lot of you helped out by pre-ordering it, driving up to #12 on Amazon’s bestseller list for awhile — and SMP still pretty much just let the book die. I am not privy to the exact details, but I believe when this was brought to the attention of the muckety-mucks, their response was something like, “Prithee, good sir, pray explain the meaning of this odd term ‘webbe-syte’.” After which they picked up their crow quill pens and resumed scratching away at the parchament ledger books. They didn’t get it, and they didn’t get me. To SMP, I was always going to be the weird alternative cartoonist kid from California, even after six books and two RFK awards. And a brief turn on the top of the Amazon list.

So it’s quite remarkable to be in the early stages of planning a real book tour, with genuine support from the publisher. It’ll be a limited tour, but that’s my decision, not theirs (these things play havoc with my deadline schedule, and there’s only so much time I can afford to take off). It’s also quite remarkable to be dealing with a publicist who understands there’s more to the job than leaving a stack of books out on Fifth Ave and hoping someone who works at a magazine might happen to stumble across them.

The book won’t be in stores until March 23. The pre-sell info should be up at Amazon within the next few weeks, and believe me, I’ll start pimping it then. (I’m holding off on releasing the cover art until then as well.) The book is full color throughout, on heavy paper stock — I haven’t seen it yet, but my editor called yesterday to tell me the advance copy looks stunning.

So that’s all good.

While I’m at it, I also owe thanks to my new webmaster. The transition to a new server has not been without a few hiccups, but things seem to be running smoothly now, and thanks to his help, I’ve cut my expenses dramatically.

And speaking of people I have worked with this year, my one regret is that these guys won’t be showing up under any Christmas trees this season. I have one set, and they are truly works of art, which must be seen to be appreciated. Unfortunately, the company producing them apparently collapsed under the weight of the demand. I was supposed to get a few more sets in lieu of the royalties they owe me, but they’ve vanished and no longer answer email, so it’s anybody’s guess at this point if that’ll happen. (Dawson, if you’re reading this–it’s okay, bubba, there are no hard feelings here. But I really would like to get those sets.) In the meantime, I’m still open to trying again if there are any interested manufacturers out there. (Anybody from Dark Horse reading this?)

…hey, one more: big, big thanks to the co-bloggers. They’ve added a lot to this site.