Life is unpredictable

Readers of this site may have noticed that I tend not to indulge in political prognostication. None of the talking heads saw Kerry coming out of Iowa this strong (though, as noted below, they immediately started explaining with great conviction why he did). It’s a fun guessing game, and if you happen to guess right, you are commended for your insight, and if you guess wrong, everyone shrugs and moves on to the next contest. But ultimately, none of it means anything.

Nobody knows how this year is going to turn out. The future is an open book. But that’s good news — it means that anyone who tells you that Bush is unbeatable is just blowing smoke, trying to create the political perception they want you to believe. One of the basic lessons of semantics is that you should not confuse the map with the territory — which means, in this case, you should not confuse Karl Rove’s wet dreams with the actual political mood of the country, which remains unpredictable. Bush can be defeated.